Poll Finds Dimmer View of Iraq War
52% Say U.S. Has Not Become Safer
Full text at:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/06/07/AR2005060700296_pf.html
By Dana
Milbank and Claudia Deane
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, June 8, 2005; A01
For the first
time since the war in Iraq began, more than half of the American public
believes the fight there has not made the United States safer, according to a
new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
While the
focus in Washington has shifted from the Iraq conflict to Social Security and
other domestic matters, the survey found that Americans continue to rank Iraq
second only to the economy in importance -- and that many are losing patience
with the enterprise.
Nearly
three-quarters of Americans say the number of casualties in Iraq is
unacceptable, while two-thirds say the U.S. military there is bogged down and
nearly six in 10 say the war was not worth fighting -- in all three cases
matching or exceeding the highest levels of pessimism yet recorded. More than
four in 10 believe the U.S. presence in Iraq is becoming analogous to the
experience in Vietnam.
Perhaps most
ominous for President Bush, 52 percent said war in Iraq has not contributed to
the long-term security of the United States, while 47 percent said it has. It
was the first time a majority of Americans disagreed with the central notion
Bush has offered to build support for war: that the fight there will make
Americans safer from terrorists at home. In late 2003, 62 percent thought the
Iraq war aided U.S. security, and three months ago 52 percent thought so.
Overall, more
than half -- 52 percent -- disapprove of how Bush is handling his job, the
highest of his presidency. A somewhat larger majority -- 56 percent --
disapproved of Republicans in Congress, and an identical proportion disapproved
of Democrats.
There were
signs, however, that Bush and Republicans in Congress were receiving more of
the blame for the recent standoffs over such issues as Bush's judicial nominees
and Social Security. Six in 10 respondents said Bush and GOP leaders are not
making good progress on the nation's problems; of those, 67 percent blamed the
president and Republicans while 13 percent blamed congressional Democrats. For
the first time, a majority, 55 percent, also said Bush has done more to divide
the country than to unite it.
The surge in
violence in Iraq since the new government took control -- 80 U.S. troops and
more than 700 Iraqis died in May alone amid a rash of bombings -- has been
accompanied by rising gloom about the overall fight against terrorists. By 50
percent to 49 percent, Americans approved of the way Bush is handling the
campaign against terrorism, down from 56 percent approval in April, equaling
the lowest rating he has earned on the issue that has consistently been his
core strength with the public.
The
dissipating support for the Iraq war is of potential military concern, because,
as Marine Lt. Gen. James N. Mattis wrote in a note to his troops as he led them
back into Iraq in February 2004, "our friendly strategic center of gravity
is the will of the American people."
Some
authorities on war and public opinion said the figures indicate that pessimism
about the war in Iraq has reached a dangerous level. "It appears that
Americans are coming to the realization that the war in Iraq is not being won
and may well prove unwinnable," said retired Army Col. Andrew J. Bacevich,
a professor at Boston University. "That conclusion bleeds over into a
conviction that it may not have been necessary in the first place."
That is the
view of poll respondent Margaret Boudreaux, 63, a casino worker living in
Oakdale, La. "I don't think it's going well -- there's too much
killing," she said, worrying that the Iraq invasion could move more
enemies to violence. "I think that some of the people, if they could,
would get revenge for what we've done."
"You hear
a lot about Saddam but nothing about Osama bin Laden. I don't think he [Bush]
does enough to deal with the problems of terrorism. . . . He's done a lot of
talking, but we haven't seen real changes," said another poll respondent,
Kathy Goyette, 54, a San Diego nurse. "People are getting through airport
security with things that are unbelievable. . . . I don't think he learned from
9/11."
While Bush has
shelved his routine speeches about terrorism, and Congress has turned to
domestic issues, fear of terrorism has receded from the public consciousness.
Only 12 percent called it the nation's top priority, behind the economy, Iraq,
health care and Social Security.
The drop in
Bush's approval ratings on fighting terrorism came disproportionately from
political independents. In March, 63 percent of independents approved of Bush's
job combating terrorism. By April this had fallen to 54 percent. And in this
weekend's survey, 40 percent gave him good marks.
The poll
suggests that views on the Iraq war's impact also remain highly partisan. Three
in four Republicans said the Iraq invasion has boosted domestic security, while
three in four Democrats said it has not. Political independents lean negative
on the issue: About six in 10 said the war has not made Americans safer.
Overall,
Bush's 48 percent job approval rating was essentially unchanged from the 47
percent rating he received in a late-April poll. And there was growth in the
proportion of people who said the economy was doing well: 44 percent, up from
37 percent in April.
But the public
took a generally gloomy view of the White House and Congress. A plurality said
Bush is doing worse in his second term than in his first, and 58 percent said
he is not concentrating on the things that matter most to them -- the worst
showing Bush has had in this measure in Post-ABC polls.
Congress fared
no better. The proportion of the public disapproving of the legislative body
was at its highest since late 1998, during President Bill Clinton's
impeachment. More people said they would look at a candidate other than their
sitting representative than at any point in nearly eight years. For the first
time since April 2001, Democrats (46 percent) were trusted more than
Republicans (41 percent) to cope with the nation's problems. But at the same
time, favorability ratings for the Democratic Party, at 51 percent, tied their
all-time low.
A total of
1,002 randomly selected adults were interviewed by telephone June 2 to 5 for
this Post-ABC News poll. The margin of sampling error for the overall results
is plus or minus three percentage points.
The poll also
found disapproval or division when it came to Bush's performance on several
other recent, high-profile issues. One-third of those surveyed approved of the
way Bush is handling federal funding of embryonic stem cell research, while 55
percent disapproved. The public was divided on the president's handling of
judicial nominations, with 46 percent approving and 44 percent disapproving.
And half said they were opposed to drilling in Alaska's Arctic National
Wildlife Refuge, a proposal backed by Bush and being debated in Congress.
But the most
striking trend identified by the survey was the spreading impatience over Iraq
and national security matters. While six in 10 were confident that the United
States was not violating the rights of detainees at the military base in
Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, Americans were more skeptical that the government is
protecting the rights of U.S. citizens at home. Only half said Americans'
rights were being adequately protected, down from 69 percent in September 2003.
James Burk, a
sociologist at Texas A&M University, said disillusionment about Iraq may
have grown to the point that policymakers will have difficulty reversing it.
"People all across the country know people in Iraq [so] there's a direct
connection to the war," he said. Burk sees a "disjuncture"
between upbeat administration rhetoric and realities the public perceives.
"These data suggest we will soon reach the point, if we haven't yet
reached the point, where that kind of language will seem too out of
touch."
Polling director Richard Morin contributed to this report.
© 2005 The Washington Post Company